Environmental Risk Reporting and Information System
   
       
 

 
 


In this step, the likelihood (probability) of an accidental release of a hazardous material and the actual consequences that might occur are evaluated based on the estimated vulnerable zones. The risk evaluation is a judgment of probability and severity of consequences based on the history of previous incidents, local experience, and the best available current technological information.

 

Determining Likelihood

The likelihood (probability) of an accidental release is based on the history of current conditions and controls at the facility, consideration of any unusual environmental conditions (e.g., areas in flood plains), or the possibility of simultaneous emergency incidents (e.g., flooding or fire hazards resulting in the release of hazardous materials).

The following descriptive scale is used to nominate the likelihood of an incident occurring in a facility :
 

Likelihood Category and Rankings
Category Ranking Definition
Certain 5 The activity will occur under normal operating conditions
Very Likely 4 The activity is very likely to occur at some time under
normal operating conditions
Likely 3 The activity is unlikely to occur at some time under
normal operating conditions
Unlikely 2 The activity is unlikely to but may occur at some time under
normal operating conditions
Very Unlikely 1 The activity is very unlikely to occur under normal operating conditions but may occur in exceptional circumstances.
 

Determining Consequences

 

Determining the Significance

         
 
 
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